Ben Kenney
July 22, 2024 7:58 am CT
The class of 2025 recruiting cycle has begun to slow in recent weeks. The July dead period brought an initial wave of commitments early in the month. Now, all focus is turned toward conference media days, training camps and the 2024 college football season.
Those media days for the newly-expanded Big Ten occur this week. Then each program begins their respective training camps before July concludes.
Related: Full recap of power rankings for every Big Ten football position group entering 2024 season
Any follower of college football knows the significant correlation between recruiting success and on-field wins. Recruiting has long been the lifeblood of the sport, even before pressure was heightened by NIL and the transfer portal. A great indicator of the future power ranking of the new Big Ten Conference is each program’s performance in the 2024, 2025 and 2026 recruiting cycles. Those classes could go on to define how we view the new conference for the next decade.
Furthermore, if there is a strong correlation between recruiting success and on-field wins, then one must also exist between recruiting top talent and winning at the highest level. In other words, the Big Ten’s top contenders are also the ones that bring in the highest-ranked recruits.
Bud Elliott’s blue-chip ratio describes this correlation: No team has won a national title without at least half of its roster comprised of former four- and five-star recruits — or better than a 50% blue-chip threshold. Some have come close, including TCU (2022) and Washington (2023). But none have hoisted the trophy without the requisite talent level.
Related: Big Ten football 2024 Las Vegas win totals, picks: Record predictions for the entire 18-team conference
So, before Big Ten media days commence and season preparation heightens, we’re looking at the conference’s class of 2025 recruiting rankings through the lens of the blue-chip ratio. Here are those rankings, ordered by the classes with the highest percentage of top-end talent (all numbers via On3):
18
Northwestern Wildcats
Sep 3, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Northwestern Wildcats interim coach David Braun shakes hands with Northwestern Wildcats wide receiver Jack Kennedy (1) before the game at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Blue-Chip Ratio: 0%
Blue-Chip Players:0
Commits:18
Average Player Rating:84.45
National Ranking: No. 64
17
Illinois Fighting Illini
Nov 11, 2023; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema reacts to a call during the second half against the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Blue-Chip Ratio: 0%
Blue-Chip Players:0
Commits:13
Average Player Rating:86.18
National Ranking: No. 54
16
Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State’s head coach Jonathan Smith leaves the file after the Spring Showcase on Saturday, April 20, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Nick King/Lansing State Journal-USA TODAY NETWORK
Blue-Chip Ratio: 0%
Blue-Chip Players:0
Commits:15
Average Player Rating: 86.02
National Ranking: No. 52
15
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Nov 26, 2022; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck stands before taking the field prior to the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Blue-Chip Ratio: 4.55%
Blue-Chip Players:1
Commits:22
Average Player Rating:85.38
National Ranking: No. 51
14
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana Head Coach Curt Cignetti looks over charts during warm-up drills during spring practice at the Mellencamp Pavilion on Tuesday, April 2, 2024. Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times-USA TODAY NETWORK
Blue-Chip Ratio: 4.76%
Blue-Chip Players:1
Commits:21
Average Player Rating: 84.88
National Ranking: No. 50
13
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue Boilermakers head coach Ryan Walters waits to take the field ahead of the NCAA football game against the Illinois Fighting Illini, Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Purdue Boilermakers won 44-19. Alex Martin/Journal and Courier-USA TODAY NETWORK
Blue-Chip Ratio: 7.69%
Blue-Chip Players:1
Commits:13
Average Player Rating:86.80
National Ranking: No. 45
12
Maryland Terrapins
Dec 30, 2023; Nashville, TN, USA; Maryland Terrapins head coach Mike Locksley waits to take the field before the game against the Auburn Tigers at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Blue-Chip Ratio: 14.29%
Blue-Chip Players:3
Commits:21
Average Player Rating: 85.94
National Ranking: No. 35
11
Iowa Hawkeyes
Oct 14, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz looks on during warmups prior to the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Blue-Chip Ratio: 15.38%
Blue-Chip Players:2
Commits:13
Average Player Rating:86.66
National Ranking: No. 47
Get more (Iowa) news, analysis and opinions on Hawkeyes Wire
10
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Dec 28, 2023; Bronx, NY, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano and players run on to the field before the 2023 Pinstripe Bowl against Miami Hurricanes at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Blue-Chip Ratio: 17.24%
Blue-Chip Players:5
Commits:29
Average Player Rating: 87.18
National Ranking: No. 20
Get more (Rutgers) news, analysis and opinions on Rutgers Wire
9
UCLA Bruins
Feb 13, 2024; Los Angeles, CA, USA; UCLA Bruins athletic director Martin Jarmond, right, with new head football coach DeShaun Foster during a press conference at Pauley Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Blue-Chip Ratio: 20%
Blue-Chip Players:3
Commits:15
Average Player Rating:86.84
National Ranking: No. 37
Get more (UCLA) news, analysis and opinions on UCLA Wire
8
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nov 11, 2023; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule during the third quarter against the Maryland Terrapins at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
Blue-Chip Ratio: 23.53%
Blue-Chip Players:4
Commits:17
Average Player Rating:87.59
National Ranking: No. 27
Get more (Nebraska) news, analysis and opinions on Cornhuskers Wire
7
WISCONSIN BADGERS
Luke Fickell head coach of the Wisconsin Badgers claps after a touchdown during the second quarter against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Camp Randall Stadium on Nov. 18, 2023 in Madison, Wisconsin. John Fisher/Getty Images
Blue-Chip Ratio: 27.27%
Blue-Chip Players:6
Commits:22
Average Player Rating: 87.54
National Ranking: No. 22
6
Washington Huskies
Dec 1, 2023; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Washington Huskies mascot Harry the Husky and cheerleaders pose after the Pac-12 Championship game against the Oregon Ducks at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Blue-Chip Ratio: 30.43%
Blue-Chip Players:7
Commits:23
Average Player Rating:87.15
National Ranking: No. 19
Get more (Washington) news, analysis and opinions on Huskies Wire
5
Penn State Nittany Lions
Dec. 30, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin on the sidelines against the Mississippi Rebels during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Blue-Chip Ratio: 50%
Blue-Chip Players:11
Commits:22
Average Player Rating:89.28
National Ranking: No. 17
Get more (Penn State) news, analysis and opinions onNittany Lions Wire
4
USC Trojans
Nov. 11, 2023; Eugene, Oregon; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley signals to the offense during the second half against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Blue-Chip Ratio: 57.14%
Blue-Chip Players:8 (one five-star)
Commits:14
Average Player Rating: 89.47
National Ranking: No. 18
Get more (USC) news, analysis and opinions on Trojans Wire
3
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore watches a play during the second half of the spring game at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, April 20, 2024. Junfu Han-USA TODAY NETWORK
Blue-Chip Ratio: 75%
Blue-Chip Players:12
Commits:16
Average Player Rating: 90.50
National Ranking: No. 13
Get more (Michigan) news, analysis and opinions on Wolverines Wire
2
Ohio State Buckeyes
Oct. 21, 2023; Columbus, Ohio; Ohio State Buckeyes running backs coach Tony Alford, head coach Ryan Day and offensive line coach Justin Frye signal from the sideline during the NCAA football game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio Stadium.
Blue-Chip Ratio: 75%
Blue-Chip Players:18 (three five-stars)
Commits:24
Average Player Rating:92.24
National Ranking: No. 2
Get more (Ohio State) news, analysis and opinions onBuckeyes Wire
1
Oregon Ducks
Nov. 18, 2023; Tempe, Arizona; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning (center) leads quarterback Bo Nix (10) and Ty Thompson (13) onto the field for the game against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Mountain America Stadium. Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Blue-Chip Ratio: 93.75%
Blue-Chip Players:15 (three five-stars)
Commits:16
Average Player Rating:92.35
National Ranking: No. 5
Get more (Oregon) news, analysis and opinions on Ducks Wire
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